Analysts predict new US president Donald Trump may propose new world agenda Anti-Establishment Groups Worldwide Celebrate Trump’s Victory
MOSCOW, November 9. US President-elect Donald Trump, with reliance on the Republican majority in the US House of Representatives will enjoy vast opportunities for shaping his country’s foreign policy, including relations with Russia, polled analysts have told TASS. A great deal will depend on who will take the key positions in the Administration of the 45th US president.
Donald Trump’s victory is being seen as a boon for far-right populist movements across the United States and Europe, with anti-establishment parties among the first to congratulate him.
The leader of France’s National Front political party, Marine Le Pen congratulated the new President and the “free people” of the US for their victory.
Her chief strategist Florian Philippot said: “Their world is crumbling. Ours is being created.”
In Tuesday’s elections Republican candidate Donald Trump clinched his presidential victory by securing more than the needed 270 electoral votes.
His rival from the Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton, remained a long way behind.
World leaders were quick to congratulate the new president-elect including those from Russia, Germany, France, the UK, Canada and other European nations. Leaders of UN-bodies, NATO and the World Trade Organization also issued statements on global leadership on trade, climate and the economy.
However it’s smaller parties that have really been energized by the result which shows the potential for populist movements on a large scale.
The leader of Germany’s right-wing Alternative for Germany party Frauke Petry called the opportunity “historic” and said “the Americans have opted for political renewal and against corruption”.
Anti-Islam and anti-European Dutch politician Gert Wilders, who has recently been on trial for hate speech, said the victory was a sign the West is living through a “patriotic spring” that could see an uprising against elites who are perceived to be out of touch.
“Trump winning proved to me that people are fed up with politically-correct politicians who are concerned and involved with issues that regard themselves but not those that are important to the public,” he said after the result.
UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage said the result was a “deep shock” for the establishment that had been rocked to its core five months earlier during the Brexit vote which saw the UK opt to leave the EU by 52 per cent to 48 per cent.
“What we are witnessing is the end of a period of big business and big politics controlling our lives,” he said.
The election of Donald Trump as the 45th President of America is a victory that shocked the US establishment considering the outspoken billionaire has never held political office.
It also came after a brutal and divisive campaign in which he up-ended virtually every political norm that exists in US politics — from threatening to build a wall against America’s closest neighbor to calling the system “rigged” and saying he would “lock up” his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton.
But his unscripted comments and wildcard nature formed part of the appeal for voters — many of whom voted for him based on the fact he was not one of “those” establishment politicians.
Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway said their team “outworked them, and frankly, we outsmarted and outclassed them in some cases,” when asked about how they beat the Clinton camp.
She told CNN that Trump “did a great job sealing the deal” and there was “no substitute for a great candidate”.
She also urged Trump’s opponents to “lay down their verbal firearms”.
“Give him a chance as your president-elect like we all did with President Obama and we all did with President Bill Clinton,” she said
What predetermined Trump’s success
The science doyen of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of US and Canada studies, Sergey Rogov, believes that “the middle class rose in revolt” to railroad Trump to victory.
“The United States still feels the effects of the great recession of the 2008-2009. Economic growth ranges one to two percent. In fact, the US economy is stalled. The social well-being of the middle class has slumped. The white middle class has risen in revolt, playing into Trump’s hands. He managed to sense the electorate’s sentiment,” Rogov believes.
“Trump managed to get away even with politically incorrect remarks about Muslims, migrants and women. His supporters saw him as a ‘regular guy’ who never misses a chance to speak his mind. This image merely contributed to his popularity, although in terms of organization, financial resources and media support Clinton had an advantage,” Rogov said.
Professor Andranik Migranian, of the Moscow state institute of international relations MGIMO, who for a number of years led the New York office of the Institute of Democracy and Cooperation, too, believes that Trump owes his victory to the mobilization of the white working class electorate, which in 20 years to come may find itself in the position of a minority in the US.
“Contrary to general expectations the Democrats suffered a defeat not only in the struggle for the presidential seat, but also the congressional elections. For the first time in many years the United States will have a single-party bloc in power. The Republicans will control both the executive, legislative and judicial branches of power,” Rogov said. In fact, “this will give Trump wide opportunities for shaping his foreign policy, including the relations with Russia.”
Rogov recalled Trump’s rather harsh statements about NATO, Japan, and South Korea, which, he said, all should fund their own defense spending. “A very nervous reaction followed from the United States’ West European allies,” he added.
“As far as Russia is concerned, Trump is known to have dropped some positive remarks. He promised to meet with the Russian president and to discuss cooperation matters with him. True, such statements made in public raised no extra votes for Trump. Moreover, several neo-conservatives have quit the Republican Party in a gesture of protest. If Trump has an opportunity to mend relations with Moscow and stem the further growth of tensions will depend on who will take the key posts in his Administration,” Rogov said.
“The Republican’s victory has stunned the world,” says the deputy chairman of the Federation Council’s international affairs committee, Andrey Klimov. “How many military contracts are at stake and how many lobbyists will be trying to influence the president is anyone’s guess. In all likelihood the United States’ West European allies and the leading Republicans in the US Congress will be trying not so much to cater to Trump’s ideas as to reformat him,” he added.
“Barack Obama has brought the world pretty close to another Cold War. If Trump really acts on his election pledges, there will emerge an opportunity to backtrack from the red line. Washington and Moscow will then be able to restore to the agenda of bilateral relations such issues as international terrorism, environmental protection, and migration processes, which are equally sensitive for the United States and Russia, because both countries accommodate the greatest number of migrants in the world,” Klimov said.
Migranian recalls that in contrast to Clinton Trump from the outset put forward the idea of cooperation with Russia and not of confrontation with it. “Trump promised that he might consider Crimea’s recognition as part of Russia. He appears to have reacted with understanding to Russia’s interests in Ukraine and he voiced certain skepticism regarding NATO. It remains to be seen how successful he will be in persuading the Republicans in the US Congress to establish partnership with Russia,” Migranian said.
Clinton’s presidential ambitions fall flat
About the outcome of the US presidential election Rogov said that it was the dirtiest political campaign in the history of the United States ever. “What made this campaign so unique is that it highlighted a deep crisis of the US political system. Had the Democratic Party come up with a different candidate, Trump would have lost. So it remains to be seen whether the US political system will adjust itself to the new realities or get out of control,” Rogov believes.
“As for Hillary Clinton, her presidential ambitions have ended in utter failure. Over the pasts three decades the United States has got pretty bored with the rule of two political clans – the Bushes and the Clintons. This page has now been turned,” Rogov concluded.